It’s been a long couple of weeks. We’re going through COVID surges in the southern border states that seem to (hopefully) be winding down, schools are refusing to open, protests are intensifying, and Disney World is open even as Florida suffers one of the harshest surges in the country.
Here in Oklahoma, our ability to draw trend conclusions is really hampered by haphazard data collection, and I suspect that more states are in the same boat. There has been a pronounced flattening over the last 11 days in the low nines on positive rate, which likely correlates with mask mandates being implemented in the 3 largest cities in the state (looking into that more later this week if the trend holds). We are testing more than ever--yesterday we reported results on over 20K tests, our highest single day so far, and we have seen the raw case counts jump in response to the higher testing while the positive rate moving average has held fairly steady. If we can bend that number down towards the 5 range, we'll all feel a tiny bit better about schools reopening, I think. Some districts are delaying in class attendance for the 9 weeks in the hopes that the situation will improve.
With regards to 'case surges or testing surges?', there is also a need to think over multiple time scales. One can be in the middle of a case surge that is beyond an expansion in testing (Florida in late June into July) and still have day-day variations that are explainable through the variation in the number of tests results that came back on a given day. Example being the Sunday report a couple of weeks ago that showed 15,000+ cases. There were plenty of "ZOMG FLORIDA IS ACCELERATING OUT OF CONTROL TAKES" that didn't take into consideration that there were a massive number of test results as well. Some people try to uniformly impose the 'case surge or testing surge' judgement uniformly and end up with incorrect conclusions.
FWIW, local news, which I do not consistently monitor (but happened to see on the Sunday in question) does seem to have since gotten better with providing more context (in terms of giving the positive% as well as the raw number of cases). There is, of course, more context than can fit into a headline/news alert, alas.
Here in Atlanta, some local TV news stations definitely do a better job than others. One has a motto "Facts Over Fear", and seems to be largely faithful to it. Another (which IMO has the best weather coverage) is pretty much 100% fear-porn about the virus (though not about the virus in the context of BLM protests), rarely showing day-to-day numbers over time, especially not against other states (like NY, NJ, etc), unless it supports their fear-porn narrative.
I think all local stations can fit sufficient context into headline/news alerts if they really try. "Cases surge to new highs!" isn't that much shorter than "Cases rising, but deaths steady", for example.
Especially outside the NorthEast, using states as proxies for analyzing trends seems too coarse because of their size. E.g. the Miami area might have a huge problem, while the Orlando area might not; yet they're further apart than RI, NH, or ME are from (say) NYC, I think.
States are, however, how we divide up the nation (the US also being vastly larger than EU nations in terms of space and distinct population centers) for purposes of data gathering and, of course, policies around the pandemic.
I watch the GA information at https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report, and notice how different things look when selecting "...Per 100K" tabs versus just raw data. Then I think how long it'd take to drive from my county to any of those "red" (per-capita) counties; many hours!
Here in Oklahoma, our ability to draw trend conclusions is really hampered by haphazard data collection, and I suspect that more states are in the same boat. There has been a pronounced flattening over the last 11 days in the low nines on positive rate, which likely correlates with mask mandates being implemented in the 3 largest cities in the state (looking into that more later this week if the trend holds). We are testing more than ever--yesterday we reported results on over 20K tests, our highest single day so far, and we have seen the raw case counts jump in response to the higher testing while the positive rate moving average has held fairly steady. If we can bend that number down towards the 5 range, we'll all feel a tiny bit better about schools reopening, I think. Some districts are delaying in class attendance for the 9 weeks in the hopes that the situation will improve.
With regards to 'case surges or testing surges?', there is also a need to think over multiple time scales. One can be in the middle of a case surge that is beyond an expansion in testing (Florida in late June into July) and still have day-day variations that are explainable through the variation in the number of tests results that came back on a given day. Example being the Sunday report a couple of weeks ago that showed 15,000+ cases. There were plenty of "ZOMG FLORIDA IS ACCELERATING OUT OF CONTROL TAKES" that didn't take into consideration that there were a massive number of test results as well. Some people try to uniformly impose the 'case surge or testing surge' judgement uniformly and end up with incorrect conclusions.
FWIW, local news, which I do not consistently monitor (but happened to see on the Sunday in question) does seem to have since gotten better with providing more context (in terms of giving the positive% as well as the raw number of cases). There is, of course, more context than can fit into a headline/news alert, alas.
Here in Atlanta, some local TV news stations definitely do a better job than others. One has a motto "Facts Over Fear", and seems to be largely faithful to it. Another (which IMO has the best weather coverage) is pretty much 100% fear-porn about the virus (though not about the virus in the context of BLM protests), rarely showing day-to-day numbers over time, especially not against other states (like NY, NJ, etc), unless it supports their fear-porn narrative.
I think all local stations can fit sufficient context into headline/news alerts if they really try. "Cases surge to new highs!" isn't that much shorter than "Cases rising, but deaths steady", for example.
The subject of loneliness related to decline and death is not controversial. I think your theory rests on solid ground.
Especially outside the NorthEast, using states as proxies for analyzing trends seems too coarse because of their size. E.g. the Miami area might have a huge problem, while the Orlando area might not; yet they're further apart than RI, NH, or ME are from (say) NYC, I think.
States are, however, how we divide up the nation (the US also being vastly larger than EU nations in terms of space and distinct population centers) for purposes of data gathering and, of course, policies around the pandemic.
I watch the GA information at https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report, and notice how different things look when selecting "...Per 100K" tabs versus just raw data. Then I think how long it'd take to drive from my county to any of those "red" (per-capita) counties; many hours!
Very interesting, thanks!
(FYI, "Hawaii has only only had..." needs an edit.)