Yes, this is marginally related but I’m processing and need to rant *somewhere*. I’m a resident physician in NM, where a booster mandate was just announced for hospital/long term care/detention center employees. Yes, *boosters*. Get one by Jan 17 or be unemployed.
It was mandated on the back of the CDC recommendation for boosters for all adults 18+, which itself came with a disappointing amount of supporting data.
At this point, the mandates are (by my view) about finding a scapegoat to point the finger at for the pandemic not being over. We ran out of unvaccinated people to shout at, so now it’s those measly two-shotters. No data, just social pressure and panic.
-- This is a a bias in favor of disruptive action because that action can be identified as “doing something” when they should instead submit to the greater calming wisdom of simply letting people live their lives. --
This, for me, calls into question the importance or level of respect that should be provided to public health officials in some way. Any politician or college freshman in PoliSci101 can demand that we "do something," but what our experts should be able to do is advise us on the hard decisions informed by data or point us in the right direction when it goes against base instincts.
What choice did the decision-makers have in the era of CYA politics? If they decide not to implement the things on the "ineffectual measures" list and the pandemic goes badly (and the media will ensure this is the story, since more eyeballs and more ad revenue), then they likely don't get re-elected/re-appointed. If they DO implement these measures and things go similarly badly, then they can just throw up their hands and say "we did everything we could," and then point to those rebellious people that didn't want to _______ (fill in with "wear a mask", "take a shot", "stay at home", etc).
What I notice there is that virus counts seem much higher for the Delta wave starting in late summer, relative to case counts, than for last winter's wave. My understanding is that Delta replicates faster inside a person, so maybe it's plausible that its (virus in wastewater) / case is just a higher ratio.
The upshot I guess is that the wastewater is an interesting indicator, but is maybe doubtful for comparing waves of different variants to each other.
For all interventions if they don’t provide complete protection for an individual… over time with endemic disease the risk of contracting the disease approaches 1. It doesn’t matter if you Mask, social distance, etc…
This is why getting immunity in the safest way possible is important, immunity permanently/nearly permanently modifies severity in a protective way. None of the other NPIs modify disease severity.
The only reason for NPIs is and has been to slow spread to minimize potential for overwhelming resources. Once the risk of overwhelming resources is past, the utility for these NPIs approaches zero.
Matt, contrary to what many of us hoped and perhaps expected, vaccination doesn't provide absolute protection from infection. Does vaccination reduce transmission to any measurable degree? Have any studies indicated that communities achieving "high" (70%? higher?) vaccination rates suffer lower case rates (my guess is that the data suggest: no, which is disappointing).
Looking for a chart that compares covid waves of regions since March 2020. I want to show someone that covid is seasonal. Where can I find that? Thanks
Yes, this is marginally related but I’m processing and need to rant *somewhere*. I’m a resident physician in NM, where a booster mandate was just announced for hospital/long term care/detention center employees. Yes, *boosters*. Get one by Jan 17 or be unemployed.
It was mandated on the back of the CDC recommendation for boosters for all adults 18+, which itself came with a disappointing amount of supporting data.
At this point, the mandates are (by my view) about finding a scapegoat to point the finger at for the pandemic not being over. We ran out of unvaccinated people to shout at, so now it’s those measly two-shotters. No data, just social pressure and panic.
-- This is a a bias in favor of disruptive action because that action can be identified as “doing something” when they should instead submit to the greater calming wisdom of simply letting people live their lives. --
This, for me, calls into question the importance or level of respect that should be provided to public health officials in some way. Any politician or college freshman in PoliSci101 can demand that we "do something," but what our experts should be able to do is advise us on the hard decisions informed by data or point us in the right direction when it goes against base instincts.
What choice did the decision-makers have in the era of CYA politics? If they decide not to implement the things on the "ineffectual measures" list and the pandemic goes badly (and the media will ensure this is the story, since more eyeballs and more ad revenue), then they likely don't get re-elected/re-appointed. If they DO implement these measures and things go similarly badly, then they can just throw up their hands and say "we did everything we could," and then point to those rebellious people that didn't want to _______ (fill in with "wear a mask", "take a shot", "stay at home", etc).
Wisconsin has wastewater data for what seems like all its major sewer systems.
https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/wastewater.htm
What I notice there is that virus counts seem much higher for the Delta wave starting in late summer, relative to case counts, than for last winter's wave. My understanding is that Delta replicates faster inside a person, so maybe it's plausible that its (virus in wastewater) / case is just a higher ratio.
The upshot I guess is that the wastewater is an interesting indicator, but is maybe doubtful for comparing waves of different variants to each other.
For all interventions if they don’t provide complete protection for an individual… over time with endemic disease the risk of contracting the disease approaches 1. It doesn’t matter if you Mask, social distance, etc…
This is why getting immunity in the safest way possible is important, immunity permanently/nearly permanently modifies severity in a protective way. None of the other NPIs modify disease severity.
The only reason for NPIs is and has been to slow spread to minimize potential for overwhelming resources. Once the risk of overwhelming resources is past, the utility for these NPIs approaches zero.
Matt, contrary to what many of us hoped and perhaps expected, vaccination doesn't provide absolute protection from infection. Does vaccination reduce transmission to any measurable degree? Have any studies indicated that communities achieving "high" (70%? higher?) vaccination rates suffer lower case rates (my guess is that the data suggest: no, which is disappointing).
Looking for a chart that compares covid waves of regions since March 2020. I want to show someone that covid is seasonal. Where can I find that? Thanks