This is the last monthly COVID report that I’m doing with the COVID Tracking Project data, as they will be suspending their project in another 2 weeks.
I live in a college town and we are currently experiencing huge case spike due to return of students. Whether or that will translate into hospitalizations or deaths remains to be seen. I’m surprised I haven’t heard more about this in other college towns, could it be what’s happening in Boston?
Right around 1/17/21 everyone's positives all but fall off a cliff. Do you (or others) know what happened there? I recall hearing a report (but cannot find it) that the CDC changed the threshold on a positive test. Do you or anyone else remember that?
I don't know anything about the positive test threshold, but I take that trend around 1/17/21 to be because of a recovery from a bump in cases after Christmas. And that bump caused by a combination of catch-up in reporting and some degree of temporary increase in transmission during the holidays.
I live in a college town and we are currently experiencing huge case spike due to return of students. Whether or that will translate into hospitalizations or deaths remains to be seen. I’m surprised I haven’t heard more about this in other college towns, could it be what’s happening in Boston?
Good stuff. Thanks!
Right around 1/17/21 everyone's positives all but fall off a cliff. Do you (or others) know what happened there? I recall hearing a report (but cannot find it) that the CDC changed the threshold on a positive test. Do you or anyone else remember that?
There was not a change, and as Matt notes, the trend down was smooth from early January. https://badcovid19takes.substack.com/p/make-shit-up-go-viral
I don't know anything about the positive test threshold, but I take that trend around 1/17/21 to be because of a recovery from a bump in cases after Christmas. And that bump caused by a combination of catch-up in reporting and some degree of temporary increase in transmission during the holidays.
Great analysis, per usual. Re: the short - you put a lot of faith in us to be able to understand Italian! ;)