18 Comments

Boy were you wrong. Looks the MRNA Vaccines might actually be doing the opposite of helping people. When will you admit you were also wrong like all the other useful idiots?

Expand full comment

It's very easy, cheap, and cowardly to try to scrape through old information pointing out flaws after new information has given us more perspective.

I'm not going to apologize for telling people who have been recently vaccinated that they can go about living their lives without fear. When I wrote this, all the data showed that everyone who had been recently vaccinated (which was, at this point in time, everyone) had very little to fear in terms of both severe disease and transmissibility.

The fact that the efficacy has waned 11 months after the fact (which is when you finally found the courage to attack me on this) does not make me feel bad for telling people recently vaccinated to live their lives to the fullest and without fear.

Waning efficacy is a bummer, but has nothing to do with this post, which was talking to people who were within 6-8 weeks of a recent vaccination. Even now, the vaccinated enjoy protection against severe disease and I don't feel bad that I encouraged them to go live their lives normally again.

Expand full comment

Waning efficacy my ass. The virus was never dangerous to anyone, except those already in the act of dying, period.

You also have no way of knowing they have protection from severe disease. So stop with the BS. There is no data available that can provide empirical evidence that the vaccine prevented severe disease (even if you repeat the mantra over and over it doesn't make it accurate). We will never know because there are so many other things that could be at play. But since they eliminated the placebo group and strive to vaccinate 100%, it will be years before we know what's happening, if ever. Perhaps we can use countries with meager vaccination rates, but you claim the vaccine kept us from severe illness is nothing more than conjecture.

Expand full comment

What are the scenarios we might might expect (or just contemplate) in which we transition to a post-COVID reality? The transitions and how that reality might look?

Expand full comment

I really do think we're getting there. I'll try to write about this in the coming weeks, but the dam is breaking and we are moving toward a post-COVID world.

Expand full comment

There isn't one. The owners will never give up the new ways of control that they acquired using this virus as an excuse.

Expand full comment

I'm still trying to grapple with what the failure point is in patients for whom the vaccine was not effective and what that means with regards to transmission from vaccinated people.

I envision there being a race between the vaccine invading cells and the immune system destroying the virus. The vaccine drastically increases the speed of the immune response, but is it really so inconceivable that, in some vaccinated patients at least, that the vaccine can build up to transmissible level before the immune system gears up?

I'm a chemist, not a biologist, so I don't know if thinking of this as a rate competition is useful.

Expand full comment

The big kicker for me is that, a certain amount of time after vaccinations, participants of the COVID vaccine studies stop testing positive for COVID. It has been long known that COVID tests are pretty sensitive, so they should be testing positive even before they are transmissible. That is, our COVID tests turn positive when they detect a viral load smaller than what is necessary for transmission.

All data is dirty and all reality is complicated, but we should treat vaccinated people as if they are not a transmission risk.

Expand full comment

Oh man, I wish this post were public so I could share it with everyone. The resistance to accepting that the vaccine works and prevents COVID infection and transmission is wild to me. Sure, we don't have a double-blind study proving the lack of transmission, but we also don't have a double-blind study proving masks are effective against COVID. Why is perfect science demanded of the former but not the latter? These vaccines are truly miraculous--let us out of this nightmare!

Expand full comment

Would you like me to make it public? I don't mind doing that is paying subscribers request it, I just want to make sure everyone gets their money's worth :)

Expand full comment

I'd cast my vote in favor of making it public. I'm not in favor of the "let's assume unreasonable worst case scenarios" school of public health communication, so the more people who see this, the better!

Expand full comment

In order to show that I’m a serious person, I’m probably supposed to comment on the main part of the post, but that cartoon is one of my favorite Bugs Bunny episodes! Thanks for reminding me of it

Expand full comment

Glad to hear it! I'm really glad I decided to add some cartoons to my newsletter b/c there is so much joy and humor out there, we should be looking for opportunities to bring it in.

Expand full comment

Do you ever lurk on the COVIDposititive or COVIDvaccinated subreddit? Yes, I know it’s Reddit, but it’s one of the only publicly open databases of people and their symptoms and there are enough stories of people getting COVID after a full vaccination to give one pause. Anyone who followed the COVID+ subreddit knew long before the media acknowledged that you can for sure get COVID twice. Now I think it’s it an early indication that the vaccine is not foolproof. I am a lockdown skeptic and am getting a vax when I’m eligible, but I worry about people freaking out and shutting down again if we don’t normalize mild COVID cases. I want peol to realize that COVID will always be around and we need to open back up in spite of it.

Expand full comment

No, I'll have to go check it out!

Expand full comment

You can yell all you want, but the owners will not allow this information to spread. It is controversial because they want it to be so they have a reason to not give up their new powers, which is why you see everywhere that all of the restrictions added before are still in place even after people have the vaccine.

Expand full comment

On a similar topic, is there good data yet to indicate how long natural immunity (from getting COVID) lasts? My impression is that reinfections have been rare (but don't know how they compare to vaccinated people getting infected), but the public health messaging here has been similar - we're supposed to act like people who have already been infected/recovered are just as likely to spread the disease as people who have never had it.

Expand full comment